Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente
Universidad Autónoma Chapingo
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Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente
Volume XXV, issue 2, May - August 2019
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Modelado espacial histórico y actual del oyamel (Abies religiosa [Kunth] Schltdl. & Cham.) en la Faja Volcánica Transmexicana
Historical and current spatial modeling of the sacred fir (Abies religiosa [Kunth] Schltdl. & Cham.) in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

Ulises Manzanilla-Quiñones; Cristian A. Martínez-Adriano; Oscar A. Aguirre-Calderón

http://dx.doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2018.10.076

Received: 2018-10-30

Accepted: 2019-02-28

Available online: 2019-04-05 / pages.201-217

 

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  • descriptionAbstract

    Introduction: Climatic conditions in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt during the middle Holocene were different from today's conditions, which may have an effect on the historical distribution areas of the sacred fir (Abies religiosa [Kunth] Schltdl. & Cham.). 
    Objective: To determine whether the environmental requirements that delimit the current distribution of the sacred fir in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt have changed since 6,000 years ago.
    Materials and methods: A. religiosa records were obtained from the Niche Toolbox platform. The WorldClim version 2.0 variables for the current (1970-2000) and middle Holocene (CNRMCM5 and MIROC_ESM models) periods were downloaded. The distribution models were generated in MaxEnt using 75 % of the data for training and 25 % for validation. The most important variables of each period were determined with the Jackknife test. 
    Results and discussion: The estimated sacred fir areas were similar in both periods. Approximately 86.5 % of the sacred fir distribution is found in protected natural areas of the zone. The limiting environmental variables of its distribution are: elevation, annual precipitation, summer precipitation, annual mean temperature and diurnal temperature oscillation. Nevado de Toluca and Mexico City had larger sacred fir areas (+2 658.4 ha and +20 129.7 ha, respectively) during the Middle Holocene. Annual precipitation was 80 to 224 mm higher than the current level and the temperature was 1 °C colder.
    Conclusion: The most important environmental variables for sacred fir distribution are similar to those reported in the literature, indicating similarity between the current and historical ecological niche of A. religiosa.

    Keyworks: Ecological niche; environmental variables; fir; Middle Holocene; potential distribution
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  • starCite article

    Manzanilla-Quiñones, U., Martínez-Adriano, C. A.,  &  Aguirre-Calderón, O. A. (2019).  Historical and current spatial modeling of the sacred fir (Abies religiosa [Kunth] Schltdl. & Cham.) in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente, XXV(2), 201-217. http://dx.doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2018.10.076